The much-debated India-US nuclear deal cleared its first international hurdle when the 35-member board of IAEA unanimously approved the India-specific safeguards agreement. Of course, India’s impeccable nuclear non-proliferation record did help. The next step is the 45-nation NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) approval. (And just as I am typing this, NSG meeting has started and it seems that the presence of opposition is formidable. If NSG decides to meet again, which is more likely to happen, Indian wait will be prolonged and as more time goes by, it is going to get difficult). Now if India crosses this hurdle, it shouldn’t worry too much about George Bush leaving the office. It is true that both Obama & McCain have backed the deal; but it may not be on their priority list once they enter the office. However if India, by that time, clears the NSG hurdle, India may accelerate nuclear development by trading with other countries, leaving the US locked out of any deals.

India aims at producing 20000mw atomic power by 2020 and for this international cooperation is a must considering the Victorian-age nuclear technology India is languishing in. The three-stage nuclear programme was setup immediately after independence. But even after 60 years we haven’t progressed ahead of the first stage of Natural Uranium fuelled Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors.

The Impact of the Deal

A look at the probable impact of the Indo-US deal on India’s nuclear technology paints a favourable picture. Since 15 out of the 17 reactors in India use natural Uranium (instead of enriched Uranium), we will need a constant supply of natural uranium. Though India is relatively rich with thorium reserves, our uranium reserves (which aren’t of much high quality anyway) would be spent in few years time. At present India’s annual production of uranium is about 200 metric tones while current functional reactors, assumed to be running at 75% of the capacity need 510 metric tones of supply. And if we are to expand and buy advanced reactors, this demand would go up. Once the deal is in place, we can be assured of continuous supply of uranium. But can we afford the import cost? The answer is yes. The cost of mining uranium in India is much higher than many countries. While most of the uranium recoverable in India is at $130/kg, in countries like Kazakhstan, Canada, Niger, huge reserve is recoverable at less than $40/kg. Thus importing becomes cost-effective.

Light Water Reactors, the most common type of reactors found worldwide require enriched Uranium (U-235 at a concentration of 3% or more instead of about 0.7% in natural uranium). And with new lesser enrichment technology, several economic advantages can be gained as it involves lower energy input, lower capital costs & lower depleted uranium waste. The deal may secure access to this technology as well as supply of enriched uranium from open market.

Even though we have developed indigenous fuel fabrication technology for mixed plutonium/uranium oxide (MOX), US’s cutting-edge technology & the experience in the field can work wonders for India. Reprocessing the fuel is very important stage in nuclear production. Since spent fuel is 96% of its original uranium, the recovered uranium can be returned for subsequent re-enrichment. US have got a dual-use nuclear technology and India can buy this including materials & equipments that could be used to enrich uranium & reprocess spent fuel. The advanced technology would also assist in finding final geological repository for nuclear waste disposal.

Though Civilian Reactors to be kept under IAEA inspection cannot be used for producing nuclear weapons, the agreement does not seem in any way to be an obstacle in way of India’s strategic needs from other reactors. Thus everything looks hunky-dory with the agreement.

The Problems

But a word of caution is warranted here. Washington’s denial to offer similar deal to Pakistan has made Islamabad declare with vengeance that it will continue to expand its nuclear arsenal. India too can use reactors, which are not under ’safeguard agreement’ to build nuke-weapons. China already has strong nuclear muscles. Is this all leading to more instable South Asia?

Further, the economics of the deal might not work exactly in India’s favour. The deal is hardly going to assist the present Indian reactors and the myriad problems hobbling it, apart from supplying regular fuel of course. India will have to buy Light Water Reactors; but the cost of generating electricity out of these is roughly $ 1.5 billion to $2 billion per 1-GW reactor, which is much higher than the cost of the present Heavy Water Reactors (about $1.2 billion). Thus unit cost of electricity generation increases by around 25%, thus diminishing their utility for average Indian consumer.

Pros & Cons of Nuclear Energy

Present Manmohan Singh government was ready to further the agreement at the cost self-existence. Is nuclear power that important? There is no doubting the significance of energy availability for economic development. By 2030, India would be third largest consumer of energy. India will need to quintuple its electricity-generation capacity from 1600 GW to 8000 GW. With limited supply of coal and rising prices of oil & natural gas, for a viable solution to the prevailing ‘energy crisis’, India has to look at relatively more sustainable sources of Energy…nuclear power being one of them.

Nuclear power is less pollutant and relatively safer than coal, gas or oil plants, provided we discount the rare possibilities of deadly meltdowns & radiations. It is more lengthy solution as world stocks of uranium & thorium are expected to last for 1000 years. Lesser fuel input needs of nuclear plants bring in the reliability factor. Nuclear energy also seems to be an apt reply to challenges of reducing green house emissions. Nuclear energy is also cheaper than renewable sources of energy.

There is a flip side to the coin as well. Apart from the possibility of repeat of Chernobyl (especially under shadows of terrorism), problem of nuclear waste disposal is an ominous issue as well. The byproducts of fission remain radioactive for thousands of years and special underground sites need to be constructed to lock away these products from harms way. Insufficient storage facilities limit the amount of nuclear fuel that can be used per year.

Huge initial costs, long gestation periods are other impediments. The notion that there is nuclear renaissance underway is ill-formed. Thus nuclear energy is neither sustainable nor green.

Conclusion

Getting the deal through various global occlusions would indeed be a diplomatic triumph for Indian think-tank. But the search for affordable energy should not stop with nuclear ties. India has tremendous potential, waiting to be harnessed in renewable energy sector. Wind power, solar power, biomass & small-scale hydropower would render a befitting solution to India’s vast energy needs. Relatively softer yet infinitely significant steps would be improving efficiency of current coal plants and taking measures to reduce power transmission losses.

Nuclear power is essential and with this deal opening doors for newer technology, India can hope that it will be in a position to use its huge thorium deposits to their potential. One should never forget though, that nuclear energy is not a panacea for all energy problems in India. It is one step ahead… but there’s still long way to go!